PPP

This is a good article to understand Purchasing Power Parity theory.

The general idea behind the theory is that a unit of currency should be able to buy the same basket of goods in one country as the equivalent amount of foreign currency, at the going exchange rate, can buy in a foreign country.

Cerita buih

Baru terbaca berita ini hari ini. Beberapa petikan dari berita berkenaan:

The global stock market rally, which resembles the bull run between 2003 and 2007, will end as government spending slows after so-called easy money boosted asset prices, according to Morgan Stanley. … The rally will end as the effects of the stimulus begin to fade and the credit bubble caused by easy money disappears.

The commodity-producing nations will be the hardest hit when the current rally ends, Sharma said. The Latin American markets of Brazil and Chile are the most expensive, he said, and Morgan Stanley is also underweight on Taiwan, Malaysia, Israel and Russia. …Morgan Stanley is overweight on India, Indonesia, Poland, Czech Republic, Turkey and Thailand, as it’s betting on economies that are driven by domestic demand. — Bloomberg

Bubble ni dalam bahasa Melayunya buih. Buih secara fizikalnya memang jenis yang tidak tahan lama. Lagi dia membesar, lagi cepat dia akan meletup. Ia satu yang semulajadi bagi buih. Secara asasnya, buih dalam pasaran saham ditakrifkan peningkatan mendadak harga-harga saham yang tidak didorongkan oleh nilaian fundamental saham-saham berkenaan.

Oh negaraku…

Mode: masih bermalas-malasan mahu meneruskan pembacaan yang berlambak banyaknya…
 
Memandangkan minggu depan mahu jumpa SV maka saya harus memahamkam kembali teori pertumbuhan ekonomi dan cuba memasukkan hasil kajian sebelum ini mengenai faktor institusi (institutional factors) sebagai penentu penting perbezaan capaian pertumbuhan negara-negara di dunia.

Minggu lepas, PM kita telah membentangkan belanjawan atau bajet. Oh ya, sekadar nak melampiaskan kemelut fikiran aku dek kerana perkataan ‘bajet’.

Kenapa perlu bajet? Apakah kerana belanjawan tidak menarik? atau panjang sangat hurufnya, atau sukar benar nak menyebutnya. Ya, mungkin bajet lebih pendek, mudah disebut. Ia juga seolah menampakkan lebih hebat, lebih macho, lebih elit. Ahh, pedulikan… inilah dasar pemimpin negara yang tidak percaya kemampuan bahasa sendiri.

Berbalik kepada belanjawan, tiap-tiap tahun dibentangkan belanjawan. Kenapa perlu bentang? Pentingkah belanjawan dibentangkan? dibahaskan? diluluskan?

Nobel Prize in Economics 2009

Hari ini keputusan rasmi pemilihan siapa bakal memenangi Hadiah Nobel Ekonomi untuk tahun 2009 ini telah diumumkan. Dua pemenang telah dipilih pada tahun ini ialah Elinor Ostrom, professor di Universiti Indiana, dan beliau menjadi wanita pertama memenangi hadia Nobel Ekonomi, dan Oliver Williamson berdasarkan sumbangan utama mereka dalam bidang “economic governance.”

Tetapi, tema economic governance disertasi PhD saya seperti yang saya cerita dahulu berbeza dengan kajian yang dilakukan oleh kedua-dua pemenang hadia Nobel ini. Maknanya saya masih ada peluang menang hadiah Nobel di masa depan, kan? huhu…

Pengumuman rasmi keputusan berkenaan boleh dibaca di sini dan berita lanjut di sini.

Lama tidak menulis

Sudah lama saya tidak menulis di blog ini. Bukan apa, sibuk sedikit. Sibuk ke malas? hehe…

Sekarang ini sudah hampir 10 bulan pengajian PhD saya. Dua-tiga hari ini saya rasa seperti ingin menulis semula. Mungkin terkena tempias bacaan buku PhD:Kecil Tapi Signifikan karya Prof Muhd Kamil Ibrahim. Ia sebenarnya bacaan kali kedua saya setelah membaca kali pertama pada Julai 2006 dulu.

17 Julai 2006 adalah hari pertama saya bertugas di UiTM Pahang. Pada minggu2 awal saya di sana, bilik pejabat masih belum diberikan. Maka saya sering berlegar2 di bilik rehat pensyarah ketika waktu tiada kelas. Di sebelah bilik berkenaan ada satu dewan kecil untuk aktiviti pensyarah. Kebetulan pada minggu pertama itu, ada pameran daripada syarikat penerbitan universiti, UPENA. Setelah melihat2 buku yg dipamerkan, buku karya Prof Kamil berkenaan adalah di antara hasil tangkapan saya.

Kajian saya

Hari ini saya ingin bercerita sedikit apa yg saya cuba kaji dalam pengajian saya sekarang.

Tajuk cadangan kajian saya adalah sekitar urustadbir ekonomi berhemah dalam menghalang berlakunya krisis ekonomi. Ia cuba menggariskan bahawa dengan urustadbir ekonomi yang berhemah (good economic governance) sesebuah negara mampu untuk mengelakkan berlakunya krisis ekonomi, atau sekurang-kurangnya mengurangkan kesan kejatuhan ekonomi negara akibat dari krisis yang melanda.

Harus diingat bahawa kajian saya ini tidak mungkin mampu mencapai satu formula khusus untuk menolak berlakunya krisis ekonomi. Bentuk krisis yang berbeza, negara yang berbeza, puncanya sudah pasti berbeza. Maka formula mengelakkan kejatuhan teruk dari krisis sudah pasti berbeza. Tidak mungkin saya mampu menyelesaikan masalah dunia!

Institutional defect?

Pardon me for the apparently ominous title for this entry.

But this news definitely do not do any better for Malaysia’s image, currently under a close public scrutiny with numerous graft cases reported in the media, some of it involving persons of high ranking, people holding the public office, and politicians form both sides of the divide, as well as the mismanagement in the public funds as in the recent national audit report, and not to forget the PKFZ fiasco, recently-closed Lingam case, etc etc.

Excerpt from the Global Competitiveness latest 2009/10 report by World Economic Forum:

Malaysia (24th) drops three positions, essentially as the result of a much poorer assessment of its institutional framework. In this area, every indicator has been exhibiting a downward trend since 2007, causing Malaysia to tumble from 17th to 43rd position in this dimension in just two years. Security is of particular concern (85th, down 25 ranks). According to the business community, the potential of terrorism (97th) and crime (95th) both impose significant business costs. Also of concern is the budget deficit, which increased in 2008, amounting to almost 5 percent of Malaysia’s GDP.

How will developing countries grow after the financial crisis?

Economics focus

Fatalism v fetishism

Jun 11th 2009

From The Economist print edition

FORTY years ago Singapore, now home to the world’s busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961 South Korea was less industrialised than the communist north and dependent on American aid. In 1978 China’s exports amounted to less than 5% of its GDP. These countries, and many of their neighbours, have since traded their way out of poverty. Given their success, it is easy to forget that some development economists were once prey to “export fatalism”. Poor countries, they believed, had little to gain from venturing into the world market. If they tried to expand their exports, they would thwart each other, driving down the price of their commodities.

The financial crisis of the past nine months is stirring a new export fatalism in the minds of some economists. Even after the global economy recovers, developing countries may find it harder to pursue a policy of “export-led growth”, which served countries like South Korea so well. Under this strategy, sometimes called “export fetishism”, countries spur sales abroad, often by keeping their currencies cheap. Some save the proceeds in foreign-currency reserves, rather than spending them on imports. This strategy is one reason why the developing world’s current-account surplus exceeded $700 billion in 2008, as measured by the IMF. In the past, these surpluses were offset by American deficits. But America may now rethink the bargain. This imbalance, whereby foreigners sell their goods to America in exchange for its assets, was one potential cause of the country’s financial crisis.

Imbasan

**Tulisan ini disiarkan di Utusan Malaysia, 6 Februari 2008. Sekadar imbasan.**

 

 

Bersedia hadapi kesan kemelesetan ekonomi AS

Oleh MAHYUDIN AHMAD

EKONOMI Malaysia dijangka terus kukuh pada tahun ini berikutan peningkatan permintaan domestik yang tinggi, peningkatan perbelanjaan kerajaan menerusi koridor pembangunan yang telah dilancarkan di seluruh negara, serta pelaburan terus asing yang mengalir ke dalam negara.

 

Keadaan ini dapat mengurangkan beban kelembapan sektor eksport akibat tempias kemelesetan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat (AS) yang mengikut penganalisis ekonomi di negara tersebut telah pun bermula.

 

Bursa saham seluruh dunia merudum teruk baru-baru ini ekoran sentimen negatif pelabur berhadapan kejatuhan ekonomi gergasi dunia AS. Krisis ekonomi AS itu berpunca daripada tekanan kredit krisis pajakan subprima dikesan bermula sejak 2006.

 

AS kini berdepan krisis terburuk dalam sejarahnya. Ia diramalkan beberapa pakar ekonomi terkenal dunia sebagai lebih hebat daripada kemelesetan yang melanda negara tersebut selepas serangan 11 September 2001 dan juga pada 1990-1991.

Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) 1997 revisited

Malaysia’s aggressive pursuant of its financial market liberalization coupled with real sector and fiscal reforms has rendered Malaysia virtually a completely open market in the region. The effects of financial liberalization on the overall economic performance have been impressive.

 

Economic growth during 1990s had been hovering around 8 percent, and growth in foreign direct investments (FDI) flows was almost four time of the economic growth, suggesting the increasing dependence on foreign capital. Between 1991 and 1996, a considerable amount of US$47 billion in FDI was invested in Malaysia (Arif and Khalid, 2000). For the period of 1990-96, the capital inflows to Malaysia rose to over 12 percent of Gross Domestic Products (GDP), compared to 4.2 percent in 1980s.

 

There was however significant compositional shift in the capital flows, where in 1992 and 1993, the net inflows of short-term capital were RM12 billion and RM13.9 billion respectively, exceeded long term capital inflows. The 1993 figure of RM13.9 billion was the historical high of 17 percent of GDP.